Barclays said Friday that oil prices face growing upside risks if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue.


The bank currently forecasts Brent crude to average $96 per barrel in 2026. If the current impasse lasts for another one, two or three months, Barclays estimates that its annual forecast could face upside risks of $2, $7 and $10 per barrel, respectively.

Barclays also warned that if the disruption continues for three months, spot prices could temporarily test $150 per barrel. The $150 figure represents a potential short-term spike, not the bank’s forecast for the annual average price.

Brent crude rose above $100 per barrel this week for the first time since May as renewed hostilities increased concerns about global supply disruptions. Prices later fell back below $100 on Friday.

Before the conflict, the Strait of Hormuz handled roughly one-fifth of global energy supplies, making it one of the world’s most important shipping routes for oil and natural gas.

Barclays has maintained its Brent crude forecasts of $96 per barrel for 2026 and $85 for 2027. Analysts expect the conflict to contribute to a global oil supply deficit this year, but stronger U.S. production, weaker demand and a recovery in Gulf oil flows could push the market into a surplus in 2027.